Celebrating their 10th anniversary year, Suzee Brain from Brain & Poulter, takes a look back at the trends B&P predicted in relation to food over the past decade. What came true, what never materialised and what lies ahead! The accuracy of their predictions has been quite astonishing!
Predictions 2009 – 2013
B&P started our annual food trends predictions in 2009 – for the first few years our predictions stated that off the back of the GFC, we would see a rise in “luxe fast food” as customers traded down from fine dining restaurants to a more casual dining experience. We also predicted that tenancies would all need to incorporate healthier menu options including paying attention to ethical sourcing, allergies and low fat. We suggested food lanes had potential to replace food courts as consumers moved towards a more upmarket fast food experience.
What happened – Most of the above came true. The fast casual food sector became the fastest growing category for 5 years running from 2012 – 2017, growing at 5 times the rate of other mediums. We saw the birth of Grill’d, Roll’d, Zueus, Schnitz, GYG, Jimmy Grants, Huxtaburger, Shanghai Dumpling and so many more. Ethical sourcing became the lynch pin of marketing campaigns for the likes of Burger Urge and almond milk chai lattes are now available in practically every café in Australia.
What’s next – The uptake by clients to work with us to re-invent the Food Court is still lagging. Focus has been on entertainment and casual dining precincts while the food court has been left to rot. Sub-regionals in particular are at greatest risk of the food court not surviving the retail downturn. Models like Brookside where we worked with the owners, architects and management team to back fill the food court into a mini major and then create a new centre court café court are a successful way to keep the food offer relevant and producing a return.
Predictions 2014 – 2018
In the last 5 years, our trend predictions have oscillated between experience and convenience. In the experience area we called for mini major food concepts – dedicated Eataly and Asian style Food Halls and activation of food precincts through curation, entertainment and placemaking additions. On the convenience side our predictions were around the influence and effect of home delivery services, drones and AI along with the Zero Waste movement. And we started talking about bugs in our diet!
What happened – Well there’s no Eataly in Australia yet! But we are getting some local concepts of about 1,500m2 with brands like Merchants of Ultimo and Mercado e Cucina in Sydney and Mercado in Brisbane. We’ve got some Asian Food Centres like 8 Street and HWKR but we are still calling out for someone to work with us on creating a complete Asian Food Hall combing fresh and dine.
Certainly, many clients have worked hard to develop placemaking strategies, with those following the B&P “Power of 10 Placemaking Process” getting the best overall results.
In regards to the home delivery revolution, the sector has experienced 3.7% growth pa for the last 5 years although IBIS world is predicting this growth is likely to slow to around 0.7% pa going forward. Probably the number 1 question we get asked at any key note address we make is the effect of home delivery. If industry estimates valuing the home delivery market are at around $600M, it still only represents <2% of the total food catering market in Australia. Our lack of density and vast distances still make it an Urban solution only. Additionally, the financial model is unrealistic for many retailers and drivers to be able to sustain and we predict it will come unstuck in the near future. In the meantime, best to embrace it. Our recommendation is to plan operational space for drivers (rear entry and parking spots) and ensure the rents struck reflect both the instore and online sales potential which may see occupancy cost % rise as more sales are recorded in the cloud than in the cash register.
Zero Waste took hold faster than we ever expected. Within a few short years we have said goodbye plastic takeaway containers, disposable coffee cups, single use shopping bags and straws. What’s next? Look out pre-packed fruit, veg and meat trays. There are already case studies coming through showing how customer spends increase when customers pack their own vegies and fruit anyway.
And what about fried crickets and pasta made from mealworms? Both Kaufland and Sainsbury’s have gone big into edible insect ranges and rumours are swirling we will see ranges on Australian supermarket shelves any day now! With green ants featuring in the pantry of Masterchef it’s inevitable that home cooks will be calling out for bugs before we know it!
What lies ahead – Overall, food catering and food retail still offer plenty of opportunity to protect asset income and extend the customer dwell time. At a recent breakfast hosted by Urbis to launch the 2019 Shopping Centre Industry benchmark Report, their data spoke of how Top 10 Regionals and the Single Supermarket Centres were the two categories most benefitting still from food (that old convenience versus experience chestnut again!) and some strong data showing how foot traffic is declining but average in centre spend per customer is growing – much of it as a result of better food and entertainment experiences.
Our prediction is that any asset owner – be it airports, education, health, mixed use, commercial, tourism or retail, prepared to take a strategic approach to really understanding their current food performance and trade area potential and then curating concepts and a mix built to the CUSTOMER not the available deal will see the best returns for their investment.
If you’d like a confidential 45-minute meeting to discuss some of your F&B KPI’s and how you could improve your returns, book now to secure a spot with Suzee Brain in May.